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Forecasting methods and stock market analysis

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3. Conclusions

There are major diﬀerences between the forecasting methods, in terms

of their complexity, restrictions, requirements and precision. Each method

is appropriate in well-deﬁned circumstances. The selection of the optimal

method, which better accommodates to a particular situation and fully val-

ues the existing data, is of extreme importance. Without pretending that

we exhausted the whole range of shares forecasting issues, we think that the

methods we discussed should be present in any study of eﬃcacy concerning

the decision of investing in shares.

The forecast activity, performed either by experts or by non-specialists,

is almost always computer-aided. All the forecast methods demand a huge

calculus eﬀort, and this is diﬃcult - if not utterly impossible - to be carried

out manually. The recent development of forecasting and his increasing role,

as a fundamental basis for decision-taking, in every ﬁeld, encouraged the

tremendous development of forecasting software. The range of the software

used in forecasting goes from general use software such as spreadsheets, to

specialized software, which are dedicated exclusively to forecasting.

References

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