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IB/99-1

from a trained health professional,

Figure 1.

but fewer than half of rural mothers

Population of Peru by Age and Sex: 1998 and 2020

did (ENDES 1996: Table 8.2).

1998

2020

Similarly, 4 out of 5 urban births

80+

but only 1 out of 5 rural births were

Male

Female

75-79

attended by a doctor or nurse

70-74

65-69

(Endes 1996: Table 8.8).

60-64

55-59

50-54

Peru’s Demographic Transition

45-49

40-44

Peru has been quite successful in

35-39

lowering mortality. Since 1975, life

30-34

25-29

expectancy at birth has increased

20-24

from 57 years to nearly 70 years,

15-19

10-14

fueled in part by a rapid fall in infant

5-9

0-4

and child mortality. Infant mortality

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

has declined from an estimated 105

Thousands

infant deaths per 1,000 live births in

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base.

1975 to 41 today (Table 1).

Over the same period, the number

Figure 2.

of births women have on average

Changes in Contraceptive Use and

(the total fertility rate (TFR)) has

Method Mix Over Past 20 Years

fallen from 5 to 3. Fertility is declin-

(Percent of married women ages 15 to 49)

ing throughout Peru, albeit faster in

urban areas than in rural areas. Be-

Modern

tween the 1977/78 World Fertility

19.9%

23.0%

41.3%

Survey and the 1996 DHS, urban

Traditional

fertility fell by nearly 40 percent, to a

22.9%

22.8%

21.4%

TFR of 2.8 children per woman.

During the same time period, rural

Nonusers

58.7%

54.2%

35.8%

fertility fell by about 25 percent, to

5.6 children per woman (ENDES

1977/78

1986

1996

1991/92: Table 3.3; ENDES 1996:

Table 3.1).

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base; and ENDES 1996.

Peru’s rate of natural increase has

also declined from around 2.6 per-

Peru’s dependency ratio will fall from

patterns. Rural and less educated

cent per year in 1975 to about 2.1

67 percent to just 52 percent over

women have lower contraceptive

percent in 1998. If present trends

the coming 2 decades (Table 1).

prevalence rates than other

continue, Peru’s population will grow

women, and they rely more heavily

by over one-third of its present

Contraceptive Use

on less effective, traditional meth-

size—from 26 million persons today

ods (Figure 3).

The fertility decline central to

to nearly 37 million persons—by the

Peru’s demographic transition has

year 2020.

High Risk Pregnancies,

been made possible by an in-

Unwanted Fertility and Unmet

During the same time frame, Peru’s

crease in the use of family planning

Need for Contraception

age structure will become increas-

and a shift to more effective meth-

ingly older and increasingly concen-

Although the practice of family plan-

ods of contraception. Contraceptive

trated in the prime economically

ning is growing, the unmet need for

prevalence has risen from about 41

productive age range (Table 1). By

contraception is still high. Indeed,

percent of married women in the

2020, the working age population

over half of all pregnancies that went

late 1970s to 46 percent in 1986

(persons ages 15-64) will be over

to term in 1996 were considered

and to 64 percent in 1996 (Table

half again as large as today, and the

“high risk” (ENDES: Table 7.5).

2). Adoption of more efficient,

number of elderly will have doubled,

Some of these pregnancies could

modern methods of contraception

while the under-15 age group will

have been avoided with family plan-

since 1986 accounts for nearly all

have increased only slightly (Figure

ning. Apart from the matter of health

of this increase (Figure 2).

1). Largely as a result of the growth

risk, there is evidence that women

of the working age population

were bearing an average of about

However, data from the 1996 DHS

relative to the under-15 population,

show distinct differences in usage

U.S. Census Bureau

Ib/99-1 International Brief - Population Trends: Peru - U.s. Department Of Commerce - Bureau Of The Census - 1999 Page 2

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