Probability Explanation And Exercises Worksheet Page 31
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37Statistical Literacy
by David M. Lane
Prerequisites
• Chapter 5: Base Rates
This
webpage
gives the FBI list of warning signs for school shooters.
What do you think?
Do you think it is likely that someone showing a majority of these signs would
actually shoot people in school?
Fortunately the vast majority of students do not become
shooters. It is necessary to take this base rate information into
account in order to compute the probability that any given
student will be a shooter. The warning signs are unlikely to be
sufficiently predictive to warrant the conclusion that a student
will become a shooter. If an action is taken on the basis of these
warning signs, it is likely that the student involved would never
have become a shooter even without the action.
215
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