Basic Impact Assessment At Project Level Page 22
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36empowerment goals and local institutional development, then participatory methods would
be highlighted and the survey work might be dropped altogether.
A Moderate Approach
The moderate approach would involve substantially more costs than the simple approach,
would yield higher levels of reliability (statistical inference rather than triangulation) but is
not likely to deliver findings for a period of 2 to 3 years. Its focus is on both proving impact
and improving programmes.
Its audiences would include policymakers (looking for
reassurance about their agency’s investments) and the senior managers of programmes.
The ‘mix’ would centre on a significant survey that would stratify clients and compare them
with a carefully matched control group. The survey would involve at least two visits with a
minimum of 12 months between them and recall techniques would not be used.
Contextual and cross-checking materials would be produced by rapid appraisal
techniques, and carefully planned participant observation and case studies might also be
commissioned. The selection of variables would depend on programme objectives but is
likely to be more extensive than for the simple approach, and measurement would focus
on interval and nominal scales.
A Complex Approach
The complex approach focuses on ensuring high levels of reliability with regard to the
attribution of causality and has an exclusively ‘proving’ orientation. Its main audiences are
policymakers and researchers and it is likely to be 4 to 6 years after launch before findings
are available. The central method in such an approach is a large scale sample survey
very carefully constructed to represent all key features of the client population. This is
compared against a carefully selected control group, so that the number of households
surveyed is likely to be between 750 and 1500. At least 3 interviews will be conducted
with each household over a period of 2 to 3 years. A wide set of variables will be
measured and the focus will be on high precision through interval measurements. A set of
related studies on institutional performance would be conducted, but the heart of the study
would be the econometric analysis of survey findings.
• Summary
The key task for the IA designer is to select an approach that can meet the objectives of
the specific assessment at an acceptable level of rigor, that is compatible with the
program’s context, feasible in terms of costs, timing and human resource availability and
that avoids the problems identified in earlier sections. Wherever possible an IA
methodology should be piloted before full implementation.
The questions that s/he must answer can be summarised as follows:
• What are the objectives of the assessment?
• How is the information to be used and by whom?
• What level of reliability is required?
• How complex is the program, what type of program is it, what is already known about it?
• What resources (money, human and time) are available?
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