Multi-Year Analysis Plan Page 14
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4
into NEMS
and MARKAL
. That way they get included in outcome analysis. OBP understands
the niche and entry markets better than PBA so it needs to determine whether the currently used
curves provide the best estimate of demands. At some point, the markets are large enough to be
properly captured in NEMS and MARKEL; that is where PBA should use the models to take over
the market estimations and insert those tools into NEMS and MARKAL.
2.2 Provides Direction and Guidance for Program Planning Functions
Analysis provides direction and guidance to OBP for program planning by helping select and
show progress on R&D projects. Engineering and analysis are used in all stages of the stage gate
management process to determine the technical feasibility and competitive advantage of projects.
Figure 5 shows the relationship between the program areas (and the area precursors before the
creation of OBP). Each area has an analysis component, and a crosscutting analysis task links the
core R&D platforms to each other in biorefinery design, new technology assessments and
methods development.
Figure 5: Workflow schematic for the Biomass Program
2.2.1
Helps Select R&D Projects
Engineering and analysis help determine a project’s technical feasibility and competitive
advantage – two of the six stage-gate criteria. The level of rigor necessary depends on the stage of
project development. As the projects move along the development pathway, the technical and
economic assessments become more robust and accurate as data are collected and utilized. A new
idea first requires a “back of the envelope” estimate to determine that the return is greater than the
expense in an ideal situation. For new (stage 1 or A) projects, the idea is translated into a process
design that can be reviewed. Simply developing a process design often identifies showstoppers to
be overcome before the idea can become commercially viable. In most cases, a new process
3
Energy Information Administration, The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview, DOE/EIA-
0581 (Washington, DC, May 1998).
4
MARKet ALlocation system. International Resources Group. "Energy Planning and the Development of
Carbon Mitigation Strategies: Using the MARKAL Family of Models" International Resources Group
Report. February 2001.
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