Multi-Year Analysis Plan Page 72

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Technical and Financial Assessments in the Stage Gate Process
Conceptual process engineering design and techno-economic analysis is used extensively in the
Program to carry out the detailed technical and financial assessments that are integral parts of the
Stage Gate process. We practice a graded approach to these assessments meaning that as the
projects move along the development pathway, the assessments become more robust and
hopefully, more accurate. The Program has developed a series of detailed process models and
assessment tools for the main process concepts under development. These tools are used where
appropriate. However, when new ideas or process concepts are being considered, these models
and tools must be developed. The information below describes the level of robustness appropriate
for the assessments at each gate in the process.
New Ideas
Gate 1 – Idea to Preliminary Investigation
Objective: Process engineering validates research direction and provides engineering perspective.
New Idea Not Existing in an Available Process Concept Tool
1.
Talk to engineering team about idea and any alternatives– get engineering perspective.
2.
Possible profit margin calculation (value – feed costs=margin for process costs).
3.
Possible simple fraction of revenue for feedstock (FRF) calculation
4.
Determine what questions need to be answered in Stage 1.
New Idea Relates to Improving Existing Process
1.
Talk to engineering team about potential cost reductions and design impact.
2.
Possible calculation of best case cost reduction - total elimination of the associated cost,
or use of previous sensitivity studies.
3.
Determine what questions need to be answered in Stage 1.
Commercial Track
Gate 2 – into Detailed Investigation
Objective: Process engineering develops a Block Flow Diagram (BFD) and gross production cost.
New Idea Not Existing in an Available Process Concept Tool
1.
BFD
2.
Inside Battery Limits (ISBL) equipment only for process model
3.
Preliminary modeling - Non-rigorous mass and energy balance (i.e. lignin model or
transgenic cellulase from plant calculations)
4.
Economic analysis capturing gross operating and capital costs (large ticket items)
5.
Operating cost calculations use standard utility costs (need to determine standard)
6.
Capital costs from database
7.
Fixed costs as a percentage of capital costs
8.
Use Lang factor to go from purchased equipment cost to Total Project Investment
9.
Use Capital Charge Factor (a certain ROI embedded) to go from TPI to $/production unit
for capital
10.
Add Capital and Operating Costs for Initial Minimum Selling Price Estimate
New Idea Relates to Improving Existing Process
1.
Use existing models to evaluate impact of improvement
2.
Perform sensitivity on uncertain data/costs to direct research
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