Multi-Year Analysis Plan Page 60
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80Biomass Feedstock Interface Analysis (WBS 1.1.1.1 and 1.3)
Supply Forecasts and Analysis (WBS 1.3.1)
Project Overview: Biomass supply schedules for energy crops, agricultural residues, and other
feedstocks have been prepared. A county-level database on feedstock supplies is currently under
development. This database will be useful for DOE-specific work such as life cycle analyses and
analyses undertaken by EIA and PBA and for the public. To align future supply forecasts with
advancements in harvest and collection technology improvements and optimized feedstock
supply, this work links to the projects under the Emerging Feedstock Barrier area and the Supply
Systems Logistics task.
Project Participants: USDA, ORNL, INEEL, NREL
Objective: Develop forecasts of future and existing biomass supplies and develop and document
a vision for achieving an annual biomass supply of 1 billion dry tons.
Stated Benefits: Forecasts and feedstock supply data are important in shaping the design of cost
and performance-competitive biorefinery technologies and in formulating the strategy needed for
supplying a biorefinery industry capable of effecting a major reduction in our dependence on
foreign oil.
Barriers Addressed: Lack of credible data on price, location, quantity, and quality of biomass.
Milestones
Completion Date
Corn stover and wheat straw supply schedules – document FY2003 analysis
9/2004
of current sustainable corn stover and wheat straw supplies
Billion ton vision paper – develop and document a vision for achieving an
9/2004
annual biomass supply of 1 billion dry tons.
Forest residue and urban wood waste supply schedules – re-evaluate forest
9/2005
residue and urban wood waste supply schedule forecasts based on
assumptions developed for the billion ton vision paper. Post information on
resource website.
Perennial energy crop and agricultural crop residue supply forecasts. Update
9/2006
energy crop and agricultural residue supply forecasts using the POLYSYS
model. Post information on resource website.
Agricultural residues supply forecasts with advanced technology assumptions
9/2007
– estimate agricultural residue supply forecasts using advanced technology
assumptions (e.g., single-pass harvester). Post information on resource
website.
Transport cost functions – develop regionally-specific transportation cost
9/2008
functions with variable facility demand to support crop and forest residue
supply schedules. Post information on resource website.
Supply forecast review – conduct review and update, as needed, of all major
9/2009
feedstock supply forecasts. Post information on resource website.
56
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