Multi-Year Analysis Plan Page 58
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80Often the intermediate outcomes are transparent or reported with the end outcomes because they are
calculated in NEMS or MARKAL. NEMS and MARKAL are based exclusively on least-cost calculations
with minimal modeled regions; therefore, they miss other market drivers including “greenness” and
regional issues. Due to those shortcomings, NEMS and MARKAL underestimate the market sizes of
emerging and minority technologies. To overcome this issue, the market sizes for renewable technologies
are estimated exogenously to NEMS and MARKAL and the results are hard coded into the
macroeconomic models (e.g., using EERE’s “GreenPower” market models for electricity generation and
RYM and ELSAS for E10 blending into the liquid fuel market).
The OBP will need to determine whether or not the currently used specialized biofuels market models
provide adequate demand curves for the high-energy impact products which are being used model
products for the sugar and thermochemical platforms. The demand curves will be time specific; in other
words, one demand curve will be used for 2010, another for 2015, and a third for 2020. PBA needs to be
consulted when developing these curves to provide input.
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