Multi-Year Analysis Plan Page 34
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803.1 Biomass Feedstock Interface Analysis (INEEL, ORNL)
The overall goal of the biomass feedstocks interface R&D is to develop sustainable technologies capable
of supplying lignocellulosic biomass to biorefineries producing fuels, chemicals, heat and power. The
specific area objectives are listed in Table 5, along with corresponding analysis objectives. The analysis
for feedstock interface R&D provides information to the benefits analysis effort, program direction and
engineering knowledge for biorefinery development.
Table 5: Feedstock Interface Objectives
Area Objectives:
•
Develop selective biomass harvest and collection technologies necessary to meet the 1
billion tons per year by 2030 goal and a near-term (2010) goal of 300 million dry tons per
year in a sustainable manner.
•
Develop feedstock infrastructure technologies necessary to meet the $35/ton price target
while assuring an economically sustainable venture for growers, equipment
manufacturers and biorefinery processors.
Analysis Objectives:
•
Develop feedstock supply forecasts, models and analyses necessary to optimize feedstock
supply chains to biorefineries and reduce supply risks.
•
Develop process designs for harvest and collection technologies to meet feedstock supply
goal.
•
Show progress toward the feedstock price target, including the market and investment
influenced grower payment, and the technology influenced supply system costs.
•
Develop investment strategies for grower feedstock supply logistics in order to maintain
supply and cost stability.
•
Develop credible supply curves for a variety of feedstocks.
3.1.1 Analysis Status
Supply Forecast and Analysis
ORNL has developed a set of integrated modeling tools (ORIBAS, POLYSYS, BIOCOST) and databases
(ORRECL) for estimating current sustainable feedstock supplies and forecasting supplies from new
resources such as energy crops. These modeling tools encompass economic, geographic and
environmental constraints in assessing the availability of biomass wastes, agricultural residues, forest
residues, and energy crops. Biomass resource estimates are sensitive to environmental and soil
conservation issues, to the scale of the processing facility, and to the economics of farming as an
enterprise. The models can be applied to provide estimates of the impacts of different development and
policy scenarios on the cost and availability of biorefinery feedstocks. Recently ORNL, in concert with
NREL and Kansas State University, developed a soils and crop management based approach for
estimating sustainable removal of crop residues. This approach was used to estimate potential agricultural
residue supplies from all important corn and wheat soils in the United States. The feedstock forecasts and
analyses are designed to facilitate biorefinery development strategies, to support life cycle analyses of
bioenergy and bioproducts, to support policy studies and policy development, and to respond to DOE’s
need to provide reliable estimates of energy feedstocks.
Different development and policy scenarios are assessed through a comparison of three investment
strategies made using information from current modeling tools. These investment strategies include fixed
commodity pricing, shared equity investments and a combination of the two. The current fixed price of
biomass as a commodity is set at $10/ton. However, this price is known to be a conservative average
representing only a small portion of the available market, and being unable to account for supply
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