Multi-Year Analysis Plan Page 54
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80process designs. From this process design, modeling, and product optimization work, 1-2 possible
pathways will be selected as the basis for designs of a biorefinery in industry-led projects with the
partner’s selection of products. The models developed as a part of this effort will be critical to evaluating
options and opportunities relative to the program technology baseline characterizations.
4.7 Bioindustry Analysis
Bioindustry analysis determines market penetration for biorefinery products from multiple biorefineries.
Scenario analyses, in the context of market analysis, are used to answer several questions:
•
What are the feasible options for developing a future in which biomass plays a role?
•
Which technologies are most likely to be a part of the biobased future, and what are the
interactions between these technologies and other, established technologies?
•
What market penetration pathways are likely?
•
What are the scenarios for biomass use in energy, transportation, and chemical markets?
4.8 Benefits Analysis
Benefits analysis helps the program quantify and communicate the overarching outcomes from biomass
research, development, and deployment such as imported oil displacement, miles driven on domestic
fuels, and greenhouse gas mitigation, using EERE-wide models such as NEMS and MARKAL. The
scenarios that are developed and the costs and benefits that are quantified, are used to develop a broad
understanding of the most viable routes for achieving biomass utilization. Results are useful in
crosscutting benefits analysis, and are used in decision-making across all renewable technologies in the
EERE portfolio. Additionally, all the analysis capabilities described in the analysis pyramid will be
synthesized into energy market analysis models to develop a broad ability to analyze the development of
possible biomass utilization. This is especially important in the area of environmental analysis, where
renewable technologies are not well characterized. Also important in determining the benefits of
renewables renewables is a longer horizon analysis model. This work is performed by PBA and provides
the intermediate and end outcomes for the EERE logic model.
4.8.1 End Outcomes (Benefits)
Within the logic model framework (refer to Table 2), EERE follows three principles for
benefits/outcomes evaluation: (1) benefits should be measured relative to what would have happened in
the absence of the program; (2) benefits should be measured relative to the next best alternative
technology instead of current technology; (3) the government impact should be reflected as an
acceleration in commercial introduction of a technology and/or an alteration to the market penetration
curve of a technology.
Timeframes
Three criteria timeframes are focused on for EERE analysis; retrospective, expected prospective, and
option (or other potential prospective situations). The importance of retrospective analysis was shown by
the National Academy of Sciences review. The review looked at whether or not the expenditure of tax
dollars for DOE research brought a reasonable return to society and it led to an EERE desire to better
quantify the benefits achieved by their programs. To that end, PBA is working with NREL’s Energy
Analysis Office to develop a retrospective analysis method and tool. The ultimate goal is a web tool that
will be publicly available for this type of analysis. The method is being built with case studies for
efficiency projects but not renewable energy projects so it may not be immediately applicable to biomass
conversion technologies.
The retrospective analysis tool uses research and development budgets and timeframes and matches that
information to market penetration data (both new market penetration and stock turnover are considered in
the analysis). It then estimates market acceleration and increased benefits due to the existence of the
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