Multi-Year Analysis Plan Page 45
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80The study is investigating the feasibility for bioenergy to play a major role as an energy source for the
United States and develop a plan to accelerate use of biomass-derived products including fuels and power.
The feasibility investigation includes potential technologies for biomass production, power generation,
and fuel refining and determining which have the greatest potential for development. The efficiency,
environmental characteristics, and economics of these technologies will be addressed. The potential for
co-producing multiple products from biomass will be included to propose the most economic, efficient
and environmentally attractive combinations.
The second part of the study is investigating how bioenergy use can be accelerated and in what timeframe
associated benefits could be realized. It will define the research and development, demonstration and
deployment steps that will be needed to enable this vision, estimate a schedule for technology
development and deployment, and determine what policies are needed to minimize undesired impacts and
speed the transition to a biomass based economy.
ANL participates in the “Role of Biomass in America’s Energy Future” study led by Dartmouth College.
ANL is responsible for conducting a “mobility chain” analysis of various fuels produced from biomass
via the sugar and syngas platform and for characterizing vehicle technologies using these fuels. ANL will
also contribute to the report of the study. For fuel production pathways not in the current GREET version
(such as hydrogen, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, and methanol), new data concerning energy and mass balance
will continue to be obtained from other organizations such as industry, National Laboratories and
universities to construct simulation options in GREET. The results of the mobility chain analysis will be
then used by the project team to determine the magnitude of energy and environmental effects of
introducing biomass-based fuels.
3.5.1.7 Economic Impacts From Biomass Demand Under Future Growth Scenarios (University of TN)
Analysis Objective
Estimate growth scenarios for biofuels, biopower and bio-based products and impacts of increased
demand on biomass prices and other parameters.
Analysis Status
The POLYSYS modeling framework is capable of considering a wide variety of region-specific
management practices. Crops currently considered in POLYSYS include corn, grain sorghum, oats,
barley, wheat, soybeans, cotton, rice, alfalfa, and other hay crops. Land types include cropland acres in
current crop production, idle, in pasture, and in the Conservation Reserve Program. Changes in
agricultural land use, based on cropland allocation decisions made by individual farmers, are primarily
driven by the expected productivity of the land, the cost of crop production, the expected economic return
on the crop, and domestic and world market conditions. POLYSYS has also been used to analyze bio-
energy crop scenarios.
Technical Barriers
This work address the Ag-sector-wide paradigm shift barrier from the Feedstocks barrier discussion in the
MYTP:
“Energy crops, per se, cannot simply be added to the list of crops and products that are handled by
U.S. farmers. Energy production from biomass calls for a complete rethinking of farming in America,
and it may involve dramatic changes in agriculture that may take some time bring about.”
Analysis Plan
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Work with Biomass Program and PBA to identify reasonable scenarios for future growth.
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