Multi-Year Analysis Plan Page 16
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80Once the barriers and associated targets are identified, technical and economic feasibility
assessments track the status of research, or the difference between the experimental data and the
targets, using experimental data cases (also referred to as “State of Technology” cases) and target
cases. Experimental data cases help to understand the status of technology development by
linking experimentally measured data to target outputs that are reported by the program.
Developing experimental data cases also improves the connection between experimental work
and process models by verifying that experiments measure the necessary data for process design
and by matching the terms used in process models to those used by people running experiments.
They also assist in certifying that process designs and models use the most updated process
understanding. Experimental data cases need to be developed and then updated as new
information becomes available. These cases should use data from experiments that are as
integrated as possible (e.g., product production should use actual platform intermediates, like
prehydrolyzed biomass and syngas produced from biomass, instead of model intermediates, like
pure sugars or bottled syngas).
Together, experimental data and target cases quantify the economic effects of improvements in
barrier areas. For example, Figure 6 shows experimental data cases (labeled “FY00”, “FY01”,
and “2002 Experimental Data”), a target case (labeled “Mature Technology (2020)”), and the
economic effects of overcoming barriers for ethanol via bioconversion.
Sugar Platform
Effect of OBP Technical Barrier R&D vs. Ethanol Cost
$5.00
$70.00
Pioneer Plant Estimate
$4.50
$60.00
$4.00
$50.00
$3.50
$3.00
Nth Plant Estimates
$40.00
$2.50
$30.00
Starch Ethanol
$2.00
Cost Range
$1.50
$20.00
$1.00
$10.00
$0.50
$0.00
$0.00
SOT - NREL State of Technology
Figure 6: Barrier vs. Cost Curve for Ethanol from Fermentation
Because the State of Technology case is based on actual experimental data and the DOE 2010
goal is a target output, the difference in minimum ethanol selling price between the two can be
broken into four technology barriers:
1. Feedstock Supply System,
2. Pretreatment and Fractionation,
3. Enzymatic Hydrolysis, and
4. Fermentation Strains/Catalysts.
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