Multi-Year Analysis Plan Page 47
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80contains sugar production modules. When new production technology designs (such as pyrolysis oil
production) are completed in the platform analysis projects, they will be added to the biorefinery process
design work and to BioRefine. Up to 4 model products will be selected to complete the process design
from the products platform Top 10 analysis. The purpose of this selection is not to pick winners, but to
find model products that will allow a complete analysis of the biorefinery process designs. From this
process design, modeling and product optimization work, 1-2 possible pathways to a competitive
biorefinery will be identified, which can become the basis for designs in industry-led projects with the
partner’s selection of products. A second round of biorefinery development is envisioned using advanced
technologies in the FY07-08 timeframe.
Emerging technologies assessment
The biomass scientific community is continually developing technologies that could substantially
improve the production of biomass intermediates. Initial assessment of emerging technologies that are not
currently part of a research platform but have potential to improve biomass utilization is performed under
this project to ensure biomass research stays at the cutting edge, reducing the time to commercialization
and optimizing R&D dollars. A stage 1 level analysis will performed using available process and cost
data and optimistic assumptions to create a best case scenario. If this scenario is feasible, then sensitivity
analyses are performed to determine the cost sensitivity to process parameters such as yield. With the
analysis results, the program can determine if the process should be added to the R&D portfolio. Catalytic
production of ethanol from syngas is an example of one such technology. This will be an ongoing task
and the results feed both the research platforms and the biorefinery analysis discussed above.
Analysis infrastructure development
Analysis methods for biomass processes are as new as the processes themselves. While some methods
and tools from other industries can be used with modification, others, like biomass physical property
estimation methods, must be developed. Coordination, development of new methods, and communication
are the three pieces to continuing to build the analysis infrastructure for biomass. Within the biomass
scientific community, there is analysis at several levels with different methods. Developing partnerships
in this community is key to ensuring the results are transparent, transferable and comparable. Building an
analysis infrastructure for biomass R&D improves the analysis value and efficiency, while eliminating
redundancy and gaps. Efforts at NREL to combine the former biopower and biofuels analysis teams and
align with the Hydrogen group are complete. The next step is to develop similar alignment between the
national laboratories in the NBC, then the biomass community as a whole.
Multi-lab coordination plans include holding annual analysts’ roundtable meetings, standardizing
methods and developing web accessible tools, methods, data, and documents. Near and mid-term new
methods and tools development plans include training in the use of risk analysis for scientific processes,
developing simple methods to track progress on all OBP projects including solicitations and earmarks,
and continued pioneer plant analysis to understand first of a kind plant costs for stakeholders. Efforts to
improve communication of analysis results to DOE and stakeholders include improved understanding of
EERE analysis methods, tools, and inputs, participation in an FAQ site for OBP staff, and development of
this multi-year analysis plan.
Finally, this task will continue to serve as a central clearinghouse for all analysis, and in addition will
serve as a catalyst for strategic thinking in setting program direction—both with DOE and external
stakeholders.
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