Multi-Year Analysis Plan Page 19
ADVERTISEMENT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80Uncertainty analysis is another way to better understand and reduce the risks associated with
biomass commercialization. For example, knowing that the carbohydrate or carbon content of a
feedstock varies can allow the processor to blend feedstocks or plan for a different product slate.
This type of analysis uses stochastic modeling, which introduces random values within defined
probability functions to predict the uncertainty of modeled systems. Monte Carlo is the best-
known method; although others exist. Software packages exist that make the evaluations fairly
straightforward depending on the complexity of the system. Uncertainty (also termed risk)
analysis is most often used in the R&D sector for evaluating projects risk vs. return, although
there are some examples of systems analysis.
The best method of disseminating engineering knowledge we have found to date is the
publication of design reports. The results can be referenced in documents such as the program’s
8
multi-year technical plan
and can be used by the biomass community as a reference process
9
design. The Biofuels Program published design reports for wood (1999)
and corn stover
10
(2002)
. These reports established the credibility and transparency of the program’s work and
enabled integration across biomass research areas both in the program and in the biomass
community at large.
Design reports should include the following elements (with the sources for all costs fully
documented):
•
A process description including yields and other process parameters and showing what
has been achieved experimentally and what are targets in the process design
•
Process flow diagrams with all equipment required (PFDs typically exclude
instrumentation and control equipment)
•
Stream ladders reporting stream conditions and flow rate from the process model
•
Equipment and installation costs
•
Total capital investment factors
•
Variable and fixed operating costs
•
Sensitivity analyses showing the effects of altering key process parameters such as yields
8
NREL. “Office of the Biomass Program Multi-Year Technical Plan (draft).” November 2003.
9
Wooley et al. “Lignocellulosic Biomass to Ethanol Process Design and Economics Utilizing Co-Current
Dilute Acid Prehydrolysis and Enzymatic Hydrolysis Current and Futuristic Scenarios.” 1999.
10
Aden et al. “Lignocellulosic Biomass to Ethanol Process Design and Economics Utilizing Co-Current
Dilute Acid Prehydrolysis and Enzymatic Hydrolysis For Corn Stover.” 2002.
15
ADVERTISEMENT
0 votes
Related Articles
Related forms
Related Categories
Parent category: Education