Multi-Year Analysis Plan Page 53
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80an important component of these analyses to ensure the R&D is focused and directed toward reducing the
time to commercialization.
Feasibility analysis is an iterative process conducted routinely during the R&D phase of work. Initially, a
stage 1 level analysis is performed using published process and cost data to create a best-case scenario.
This baseline study uses optimistic assumptions for feedstock cost, process efficiency, and yield. If the
results of the baseline study appear feasible, then additional analyses are performed on the process
parameters to determine the range of cost sensitivity. These analyses are used to assess the level of
development of a process, whether the technology should remain in the portfolio, and if a major
breakthrough is required or possible.
The economic competitiveness of a technology is assessed by evaluating its implementation costs for a
given process compared to the costs incurred by current technology. These analyses are therefore useful
in determining which projects have the highest potential for near-, mid-, and long-term success. During
the development of the technology, the implementation cost is determined by varying the production
volume, economy of scale, process configuration, materials, and resource requirements. The tools used
for these analyses include process design and modeling, capital and operating cost determination, and
cash flow analysis.
4.5 Environmental Analysis
Environmental analysis is used by the Program to quantify the environmental impacts of biomass
utilization technologies. Specifically, life cycle assessment is used to identify and evaluate the emissions,
resource consumption, and energy use of all processes required to make the process of interest operate,
including raw material extraction, transportation, processing, and final disposal of all products and by-
products. Also known as cradle-to-grave or well-to-wheels analysis, the methodology is used to better
understand the full impacts of existing and developing technologies, such that efforts can be focused on
mitigating negative effects. Several detailed life cycle assessments have been carried out, documented,
and peer reviewed on biomass to power and biomass to ethanol. Additional life cycle assessments will be
carried out as needed to identify the important energy and environmental characteristics of new biomass-
based processes.
4.6 Integrated Biorefinery Analysis
Integrated biorefinery analysis combines the technology assessments to determine the optimal mix of
technologies to produce a slate of products. Using a linear program type model, technology developers
can study the possible options before investing in development or deployment activities. This “single
biorefinery” optimization feeds directly into a “whole bio-industry” optimization in the market
penetration analysis. With the integration of the former biopower and biofuels programs and the efforts in
identifying candidate products from biomass, we now have the information in one place to develop
emerging and advanced biorefinery process designs for plants producing a combination of power, fuels
and chemicals. The OBP is currently working with existing biorefineries (dry mills, wet mills, pulp and
paper mills, forest products facilities). A stage 1 analysis using products with relative values based on a
primary product (e.g. ethanol) will be performed first to understand the sensitivity of market value and
size on the product slate. Then biorefinery process designs with integrated heat and power utilization will
be created, using the information from all platforms and the feedstock interface program. Mass and
energy balances will be developed along with capital and operating cost estimates at a stage 2 level of
analysis. Modules for syngas production and utilization will be added to BioRefine, a spreadsheet based
linear program that currently contains sugar production modules. When new production technology
designs (such as pyrolysis oil production) are completed in the platform analysis projects, they will be
added to the biorefinery process design work and to BioRefine. A number of products will be selected to
complete the process design from the “Top 10 Value Added Chemicals from Biomass” report. The
purpose of this selection is to find model products that will allow a complete analysis of the biorefinery
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